| R7 HASTINGS | 01 March 2018 |
| Little Avondale Lowland Stakes G3 3F OPEN ($65,000), 2100m 2:09.34 | |
| Race Synopsis: The track had an on pace and/or inside bias all day except for two races where they went hard in an Open Handicap 1400m and the winner came from fifth the fence turning in and this Listed 3yo filly 200m.
This event was one of two almost last chance saloon races for the G1 NZ Oaks (2400m) on March 17 at Trentham.
Savvy Coup has been consistent over Summer but yet to win in the North Island so the South Island filly ticked off one key box today.
She was a maiden until winning on November 17 and since then has won or placed ever since and now is a dual G3 winner, G1 placed and Listed placed.
Savvy Coup sat back tenth the outer and was wide across the top before surging home in clear air quickly to come from fifth at the 200m to lead 100m later and then powered through the line to score by over two lengths.]
The time was 2:09.34 and that was a smidgen quicker than the Ratings75 older horses that won earlier today at this meeting.
It was the fourth win in eleven starts for Savvy Coup and she has thrived in a relatively busy Summer to now be a leading Oaks prospect in the Autumn.
Milseain ran on well from eighth and turning for home second widest runner but she could not match the ping of the winner but kept coming like a stayer.
Caricature made it an all run on finish after being midfield the inner and then unwinding stoutly once off and into clear air the final 200m.
Swing Note was the best run of the non-dividend payers and in fact overall the bravest effort after being trapped wide the whole race fifth mostly.
She did not flinch and actually got to fourth at the 200m, before finishing fifth beaten just under three lengths and would have been second for sure but for such an overlander.
Le Sablier a maiden came from last and the widest runner turning for home to finish sixth beaten three lengths and was a real eyecatcher.
Her effort alone does add some pause to the result and prevent getting carried away too much with Group race gushing so the more logical approach is to state she is a winner in waiting.
Belle Du Nord ran on well from second last having been held up the run home and only getting into clear at the 150m.
In The Clear led up and was headed at the 100m then swamped the final 25m to finish seventh beaten just over three and a quarter lengths.
Za Za Gabor, a maiden, was wide then went up out outsider the leader and wilted the run home but it was not too bad an effort and she too is a winner in waiting.
Treasure was held up and in traffic early the run home but when asked with the whip to lift and pierce through did not savage the line so was a tad disappointing.
However she is a different filly when unwound earlier and in clear air the outer so her story and many others today is a combination of wrong place at the wrong time.
Hasahalo was back the outer and one spot behind the eventual winner until being steered surprisingly to the rail at the 600m and being ridden for luck the inside turning for home.
When it comes off it looks like a heroic handling or genius gambit but since it fails nine times out of ten it should only be a desperation option.
This filly won a G1 mile at Riccarton by four lengths humiliating her age and sex last November when let rip down the outer in clear air so she is not a complicated ride at all.
In three runs since she has finished eighth (at G2), ninth (at Listed level where Savvy Coup finished third and Contessa Vanessa finished thirteenth) and tenth today at G3 so something needs to change whether it be tactics or rider or both.
When she bolted away with the G1 1000 Guineas the fifth finisher that day was Swing Note beaten just under five and a half lengths and today she sat wide the whole way and beat Hasaholo home by two and a quarter lengths.
The almost eight length turnaround is not believable whatsoever and nor is it a true reflection but it does highlight the colossal form swings and outrageous roundabouts of New Zealand 3yo form this season.
Bettors despise judder bars and roundabouts with massive form reversals and margin swings of incredible amounts, so turnover is deeply affected when it looks like a dart throw blindfolded upside down on a pendulum and the dartboard is moving too!
Treasure was on the inside and hemmed up the run home so her clear air options were dictated too by others but Hasahalo could have followed the winner wide before home turn and then let rip.
Hasaholo surged up the inside and reached sixth at the 100m with heaps to offer but then had to be grabbed hold of totally and throttled right down as so many rival rumps ahead.
The rest were outclassed and most raced handy so could not go on in effect.
Savvy Coup is now Oaks favourite and Hasahalo paying four times as much, which makes a mockery of the actual form comparison by multiple threads or links.
Hasahalo in her 1000 Guineas win gapped Dijon Bleu (second) by four lengths and Countessa Vanessa (seventh) by six and a half lengths and neither trained off after that.
Savvy Coup won a G3 1550m on December 16, a month after the 1000 Guineas she did not run in, and second that day beaten half a length was Dijon Bleu and third beaten two and a quarter lengths was Contessa Vanessa.
Dijon Bleu since then won at G3 and G2 then had a setback and was spelled while Contessa Vanessa since has won at G3 and G2 and in an Open 3yo and finished second at G2 and had a hard run and missed at Listed level over a mile.
She has been the busiest filly bee over Summer by miles.
Savvy Coup when third in a Listed mile beat Hasahalo home by three lengths in a race that Scott Base beat Embellish and the latter has since been shown up in Australia finishing sixth at G3 over 1400m and eighth beaten five and a half lengths in the G1 Australian Guineas both at Flemington.
The G1 Randwick Guineas is a week later in Sydney so many of the top Sydney 3yo's never even ran in Melbourne therefore the depth of both races is affected greatly and compromised.
Embellish and Hasahalo were the G1 mile winners in the Spring at Riccarton so can this form now be actually trusted at all?
Common form threads this season have looked to be holding only for them to be spectacularly detached like a cobweb tearing apart due to natural rain or manmade watering.
Steerage and race speed can cause volatility of form by many lengths and for the bettor that is wildly unnerving especially when wagering on other forms of gambling are not affected by weather or manmade tinkering or tempo or tactics.
A fair chance is all bettors ask for but when the negatives dagger the positives into a pin cushion pinyata for punters then perception becomes reality and too many variables always deters turnover increase.
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The Michael & Matthew Pitman-trained Savvy Coup winning the Gr.3 Little Avondale Lowland Stakes (2100m) at Hastings 1.3.2018
